Recently, the market for trichlorosilane has been affected by downstream polysilicon and European “double reverse†and underemployment, and the market is still in the doldrums. At present, there are only a small number of enterprises in the industry, including Zhejiang Xin'an, Deshan Chemical, Henan Shangyu New Energy, etc., but the start-up load of the enterprises is relatively low. The quotations in the mainstream markets were stable at 4400-4500 yuan (t price, the same below), and individual regions were affected by the rise of liquid chlorine, and the price rebounded slightly. After a period of waiting and seeing, a few companies have targeted the Japanese and Korean markets and increased their export efforts. It is expected that the prices of trichlorosilane will gradually stabilize and show a pick-up trend.
It is understood that the downstream of trichlorosilane is divided into two large pieces, namely polysilicon and silicone. Among them, polysilicon accounted for more than 90% of the downstream market share of trichlorosilane, and the trichlorosilane companies had a strong dependence on them; organosilicon accounted for less than 10% of the downstream market share of trichlorosilane and was mainly used as an auxiliary material.
Experts said that due to the “double reverse†in Europe and the United States, the export of photovoltaic products was blocked, causing the price of trichlorosilane to drop sharply. Sixty-six domestic polysilicon companies now maintain less than 10 start-ups, and the operating rate is less than 20%. On October 10, the U.S. Department of Commerce finalized that China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells had dumping and subsidies. Earlier, the EU has determined that the United States as a substitute country to evaluate the cost of photovoltaic products. At the same time, low-priced imports of polysilicon also caused an impact on the market, polysilicon market price in September was 18.58 US dollars / kg, a decrease of 5.45% over the previous month.
The PV industry is in trouble and the trichlorosilane companies with polysilicon as the main sales target have been severely affected. The sales of the products have been hindered and the fund recovery has been difficult. The average selling price of trichlorosilane declined from 6000 to 6,500 yuan at the beginning of this year to the current 4,400 to 4,500 yuan, a drop of 25% to 30%. At present, although the trichlorosilane companies have lowered their prices and reduced their production, the surplus production still cannot be consumed. Trichlorosilane prices have fallen below the cost line. Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other regions compete for downstream customers, and low-cost is now the market.
Under this circumstance, many trichlorosilane companies have turned their attention to silicones, increased market development efforts such as silane coupling agents, seized market share, and once stabilized production. However, since the second half of this year, silicone companies have also been affected by the lack of downstream products, the operating rate has declined, and the demand for trichlorosilane has also been reduced. The trichlorosilane market has been aggravated. It is understood that at the beginning of this year, the average monthly sales of trichlorosilane was 30,000 tons. At present, the average monthly sales of trichlorosilane is 7,000 to 8,000 tons. Of the more than 70 domestic manufacturers of trichlorosilane, only a few companies with stronger capabilities have maintained low-load production, and other companies have stopped production.
According to experts, trichlorosilane has rapidly developed in recent years with the rapid development of polysilicon, and has become an important support link for the photovoltaic industry. It can be said that the development of trichlorosilane reflects the status quo of domestic photovoltaic, especially polysilicon industry. Although the polysilicon industry is currently at the bottom, it is also in a critical period of adjustment and integration. The trichlorosilane industry is expected to rely on the adjustment of the photovoltaic industry to increase the operating rate.
At present, the adjustment and integration of the global photovoltaic industry is ongoing, and China is also planning to support the photovoltaic industry. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China has initiated investigations on imports of polysilicon from the United States, South Korea, and Germany, which will effectively curb the current trend of imports of polysilicon and form a substantial favorable for domestic polysilicon companies. At the same time, the National Energy Administration is formulating a series of industrial policies such as “Guidelines for Promoting the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry†to support the photovoltaic industry.
The industry expects that under the stimulating of policies, the operating rate of downstream polysilicon enterprises will increase by 20-30%. The upstream trichlorosilane enterprises will directly benefit, and the operating rate will also rebound significantly. With the gradual implementation of the stimulation policies in the photovoltaic industry, and the further development of the downstream market of trichlorosilane and the increase in exports, the trichlorosilane will usher in new opportunities for development.
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