As the intensity of Hurricane Rita entering the United States continues to escalate, it poses a threat to US crude oil production and refining. New York crude oil futures prices rose significantly, rising to 67 US dollars / barrel, up 6.6% from last week. And technically, the crude oil price confirmed the effective support of 63 US dollars, so that the upside room opened again. Singapore's fuel oil basically maintained a high level of volatility. The price was basically the same as last week, and the domestic fuel oil import cost remained at around 3,400 yuan/ton. Driven by the strengthening of crude oil, Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures successively set a new record high, with December prices at 3,226 yuan/ton, up 2.8% from the previous week. The current price difference is still the main driving force for the rise of futures prices. In the context of the deadline for delivery of the main contract, the price will continue to return to the spot.
International crude oil prices are still the main line affecting the market. The increase in volatility indicates that the long-short game is more intense. The target of this hurricane attack was the oil-intensive Texas state of the United States. The tight supply of oil products was expected to promptly reflect the price of oil.
Under the pressure of international public opinion, OPEC stated that it will abolish the current quota of 28 million barrels and use idle capacity to meet market demand. The time will last three months and new crude oil will enter the market in October. The problem is that OPEC has actually been let go of production, and the abolition of quotas is more symbolic than practical. According to the OPEC's crude oil supply and demand balance sheet, crude oil production in the second quarter exceeded demand by 2.62 million barrels per day, while supply in the third quarter will still exceed demand. However, it is clear that OPEC statistics have not been recognized by Wall Street. The only thing that is worth worrying now is global demand. Hurricane Katrina has lowered the estimated GDP growth rate of the United States by 0.2% to 3.4%. In its most recent September report, the International Energy Agency once again lowered its global oil demand forecast by 250,000 barrels/day to 1.35 million barrels/day. However, before the real slowdown in global economic growth, the role of reducing oil prices is still very limited.
There will be a week to enter the National Day holiday. According to the usual practice, prices will tend to be stronger around the holidays. With the current high oil prices, domestic importers are generally reluctant to buy more imported cargoes to avoid the risks during the holidays. Short-term supply may be less, and the current Huangpu stock level has been lower than safety stocks. Therefore, the opportunity for fuel oil prices to remain firm, and futures prices are still high potential.
International crude oil prices are still the main line affecting the market. The increase in volatility indicates that the long-short game is more intense. The target of this hurricane attack was the oil-intensive Texas state of the United States. The tight supply of oil products was expected to promptly reflect the price of oil.
Under the pressure of international public opinion, OPEC stated that it will abolish the current quota of 28 million barrels and use idle capacity to meet market demand. The time will last three months and new crude oil will enter the market in October. The problem is that OPEC has actually been let go of production, and the abolition of quotas is more symbolic than practical. According to the OPEC's crude oil supply and demand balance sheet, crude oil production in the second quarter exceeded demand by 2.62 million barrels per day, while supply in the third quarter will still exceed demand. However, it is clear that OPEC statistics have not been recognized by Wall Street. The only thing that is worth worrying now is global demand. Hurricane Katrina has lowered the estimated GDP growth rate of the United States by 0.2% to 3.4%. In its most recent September report, the International Energy Agency once again lowered its global oil demand forecast by 250,000 barrels/day to 1.35 million barrels/day. However, before the real slowdown in global economic growth, the role of reducing oil prices is still very limited.
There will be a week to enter the National Day holiday. According to the usual practice, prices will tend to be stronger around the holidays. With the current high oil prices, domestic importers are generally reluctant to buy more imported cargoes to avoid the risks during the holidays. Short-term supply may be less, and the current Huangpu stock level has been lower than safety stocks. Therefore, the opportunity for fuel oil prices to remain firm, and futures prices are still high potential.
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